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The Lib Dems crash amongst young voters…or do they…?

The headline that is bouncing around on twitter at this very moment is that in the latest YouGov fieldwork the Lib Dems are down to 3% amongst 18-24 year-old who intend to vote. The figure further fuels the talk of a dead party wandering into political oblivion but if we look a bit closer at the numbers I think we might get a sense that daily polling really is a bit bizarre.

Below is the YouGov in depth report featuring the main three parties with all the others marked as unsurprisingly others:

YouGov Polling
YouGov Nov 2-3 2011


But that fieldwork was done between Wednesday and Thursday. What did the in depth fieldwork lok like between Tuesday and Wednesday?

YouGov Poll
YouGov Nov 1-2

So what causd the Lib Dems to fall 5% amongst 18-24 year-olds in 24 hours? Did Nick Clegg come out and say he wanted student places to be decided by Russian Roulette in a new prime-time ITV1 show hosted by Ant n Dec and judged by Simon Cowell? I haven’t seen that reported anywhere. Did Vince Cable get secretly recorded as saying he was declaring war on students? Again hasn’t crossed the newswire as far as I can tell.

It is just an anomaly of polling every single day. Sometimes you just speak to a lot of people who like one party but dislike another. On the upside in 24 hours our vote has gone up by 3% in the Midlands but down by 3% in the South and by 4% in London. Either it’s another anomaly or Nick Clegg did tell all out of work southerners that there is no help and he’s invested solely in new manufacturing plants in the Midlands. I wonder which…

Don’t get hung up on rogue polls folks. That is all they are.

Update: In addition it has just been pointed out to me that the sample size for 18-24 year-olds is 87 on the 2-3 Nov Poll and 92 on the 1-2 Nov Poll. I’m no math major but I think there might be a rather large margin of error there…

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