The Rambles of Neil Monnery

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Archive for the ‘ukip’ tag

On the Lib Dems plans in Southend come May and local political blogging…

with one comment

Southend’s newest sensation of the political blogging scene has finally turned his attention to the Liberal Democrats after his recent attacks on the Greens, the Tories and UKIP. In a piece entitled, ‘Where have all the Liberal Democrats gone?’ he opines about the parties fortunes in the borough.

Now I’m not going to fill in all the blanks for him as I don’t want to spoil his fun by bringing knowledge to the situation, that isn’t seemingly what his blog is for. Julian Ware-Lane has always led the field in local political blogging but now he forms a two-headed tag-team and whilst I would love to sit here and be aggressive about it, it is actually fun reading and credit where credit is due, between them they do lead the way in Southend political blogging. Whether much of what they write is fair or written with strong Labour specs on is another matter but they do churn out content.

I was asked the other day if I had any advice for him and I casually replied that he should invest in a copy of McNae’s. All the cool kids have one (myself included) although I aced Journalism Law at university and am pretty confident that my blurbs never skate even near the line.

He questions whether Cllr. Paul Collins’ big defeat (and lets not beat around the bush – it was a big defeat) in Westborough last year is the reason for having no PPC selected for Southend West as yet. I can answer that question, No, No it isn’t. I can give a much more informed opinion of why there is no PPC in place at this point but this is not the forum. I’m being a good boy today.

As for when a PPC will be selected and announced, I’d expect movement to happen on this subject before I’ve raided the Cornish Bakehouse for my Monday four double chocolate doughnuts for £1.50 treat (seriously if I lived within walking distance of that bakery then I’d eat so many freaking double chocolate doughnuts it would be insane).

On the Rochford & Southend East issue, this is a much harder candidacy to fill, I think that is fair comment. The party across the land have lost many members and many good candidates are disillusioned, that is the truth and there is no hiding from this fact. The Lib Dems in Southend are not immune to this but I’m sure there will be a candidate on the ballot for people in Rochford & Southend East to give them a Lib Dem option. Who knows maybe it’ll be a 31 year-old double chocolate doughnut enthusiast? Who knows…? (I know but I don’t want to spoil Matthew’s hypothetical fun)

He really does think the Lib Dems are dead in the water as he predicts that the party will lose Leigh ward but still be a junior partner in the administration come the summer. Well with four councillors (which is the number he predicts) then the Lib Dems would be the smallest party (or group) on the council. If that is the case I’d hope the Lib Dems step aside and allow the other four groups to form an administration. I said this in 2014 that Southend had (rightly or wrongly) rejected the party and should they go down to the fifth largest party then I can see no reason why the party should be involved in the administration in any way. Also losing Leigh ward would be a real kick in the teeth for the party but if I was a bookmaker I wouldn’t be putting my mortgage on that result just yet.

Also he sincerely doubts that the party will be able to find a full slate of candidates across the borough, well lets see what happens eh? I’m not saying I know the answer as nomination papers etc. haven’t been sent out yet but I have an idea as to whether the party will go 17/17 I wouldn’t want Matthew to be unduly surprised so I’ll give him fair warning to not worry too much about the Lib Dems in Southend on this front. If the party goes 17/17 it won’t be a shock but if they don’t I wouldn’t exactly have a heart attack either. Sincerely doubts is probably over-stretching.

I’m not going to sit here and say everything is rosy in the Southend Lib Dem garden because it isn’t. I’m a realist but I also wouldn’t be writing the obituary just yet either. I expect a very good person will be selected as the Southend West Lib Dem PPC within a few days. Just because Matthew Dent isn’t briefed on the inner workings of the local party doesn’t mean nothing is happening. If he is so interested in finding out all the gossip before everyone else I will happily offer him the chance to resign from the Labour Party and join the Lib Dems, then he can write with all the facts, wouldn’t that be novel?

Look I enjoy his blog, I really do but I always struggle to trust any politco (including my lot) who basically say that the party they are a member of is great and everyone else sucks. The political spectrum is relatively narrow as the main political parties are all realists but when in opposition they’ll widen that spectrum to appeal to a wider set of voters before actually narrowing what they do in power because sometimes there is only so much money in the pot etc.

Labour introduced tuition fees and they introduced privatisation to the NHS. The two big sticks they use to attack the Lib Dems and Tories respectively, they actually started. This isn’t political rhetoric, it is fact. It just goes to show that all political parties will often take the same road when presented with similar financial options. The whole funding of new hospitals and new hospital wings with private money was fantastic short-term but has crushed many NHS trusts financially but as Julian Ware-Lane told me on twitter, ‘The GE will be a chance for voters to pass judgement on the ConDem Govt. What happened before is history.’

So the Iraq War, introducing (and trebling) tuition fees, starting the privatisation of the NHS, crushing NHS trusts long-term with sky high rental costs of new buildings, being in charge of an economy that collapsed and let the bankers run wild is all in the past and doesn’t matter. Therefore by the 2020 General Election I’m sure the fact the Lib Dems were in a coalition or anything the Tories did in power between 2010-2015 if they find themselves in opposition won’t matter and won’t be mentioned by any Labour candidate. Yeah right…

I’m not saying Labour are bad. I’m not saying the Lib Dems are great. The truth lies somewhere in the middle and determining where that is for all of us personally should determine where our vote goes. Same with the other political parties. This is one of the things that I really deplore about politics, just how black and white politicos and candidates get whereas in reality most things are a shade of grey to some degree. I’ve written many blog posts both praising and attacking the Lib Dems for what they are doing in government and I like to think that this is a mature attitude and not just acting like a political sheep.

So anyway that will be all. Short version is the Lib Dems in Southend aren’t dead yet and things are going on. Many local candidates are in place and just because they haven’t been announced yet, doesn’t mean that they aren’t. I think it is fair to say that bountiful success is not expected in May but nor do I expect being last in every seat with no votes whatsoever. The reality will be somewhere in the middle. The Southend West PPC will get selected and announced in the very near future and the Rochford & Southend East candidate will be next on the list but who knows who it will be…? *has a twinkle in his eye*

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Written by neilmonnery

January 16th, 2015 at 6:00 am

On Nick Clegg and the chances of losing his Sheffield Hallam seat in May

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Oh Sheffield Hallam. The baying public are looking for this seat to provide the Michael Portillo moment. The evil bugger Clegg who sold his soul for a car. Sold out Forgemasters for reasons unbeknown to his mere mortals. Laughed in the faces of students when he turned around and not only didn’t consign tuition fees to history but in fact actually increased them. He also married someone he loved but she was foreign, I mind how fucking dare he fall in love with a non English person and then naming his kids with traditional Spanish names, who wears the trousers Clegg, who wears the trousers? I know that happened ages ago but it still needs to be reiterated.

There is of course no doubt that he’ll lose his Sheffield Hallam seat because he is the most evil of the evil. A man so evil that Montgomery Burns bows down to him as a hero. A man so two-faced that he actually wears a prototype invisible neck brace that was paid for by you – the tax payer – after millions of secret pounds of research were poured into it to stop him feeling the effects of whiplash. A man so dastardly that Mutley now lives with him. A man so blue that unlike every other smurf, he even pisses blue and not yellow.

In case you can’t tell I’m being sarcastic.

The Guardian wrote an article that they have written before and will write many times between now and May over the weekend, Could Nick Clegg lose his Sheffield seat in May general election?. The first five paragraphs of the article concentrate on an encounter Clegg has with a 53 year-old who usually votes Lib Dem but intends to vote UKIP this time. Is he voting against Clegg because he thinks that he is evil? Well no, he’s voting UKIP based on the issue of foreigners and actually says he likes Clegg and has listened to him talk many times and is impressed by him. However his vote is going to someone who hasn’t been selected yet based on reasons that Clegg couldn’t actually do anything about.

The writer goes on to say that the Labour candidate is playing up two things against Clegg, one the Forgemasters loan and one is he doesn’t care about Sheffield Hallam and is busy in Westminster. The article also states that he actually spends two days a week in his constituency, which is actually a very high number for a minister in a non London based constituency but still. The Labour candidate is getting no central money, is starting from a standing start with no ground game, in a seat which is very affluent and remembers the bad old days of Labour in south Yorkshire before the Lib Dems came in and wrestled the seat from the Tories in 1997. This is not a seat where Labour have any realistic hope of winning yet all the talk from the media will amp it up to a crazy and unfair level.

I have just had a look at the Betfair Exchange and Nick Clegg is 1/10 to win. Labour are hilariously at 3/2 – I mean lay that bet as much as you can folks. If people want to throw their money away then feel free to help them. Labour are 19,000 odd votes behind in a seat with no history, where the council seats even in recent elections have been flat out dominated by the Lib Dems and people don’t think Clegg is evil.

As I’m a kind type of person I’m going to help you try to understand how likely a Nick Clegg defeat in May in Sheffield Hallam.

List of things that are as likely as Nick Clegg losing:

Kermit the frog coming out and admitting that he has cheated on Miss Piggy with George from Rainbow.
Pat Sharp not being greeted as the second coolest student union visitor (Karl Kennedy from Neighbours will always be #1)
Jeff Stelling resisting a pun whenever Gareth Jellyman scores.
I get asked to be the fifth coach on The Voice and the fifth judge on The X Factor is a shock duel role as the main influential voice in the music industry.
Kevin Pietersen captaining England in the World Cup.
The existence of dragons gets confirmed and they in fact don’t like the Welsh.
Kay Burley gets through the General Election campaign without being involved in a clash with someone on camera.
Nigel Farage quits his role of leader of UKIP to play basketball for the Harlem Globetrotters.
Ginger kittens will stop being cute.
Ginger women will stop being feisty and extremely attractive.
The People’s Republic of Southsea finally declares independence from the UK.
Leprechauns not liking Lucky Charms.
The Mirror publishing the Ed Miliband bacon sandwich photo on the front page for every day of the General Election campaign with the headline, ‘Ed has Tommy K instead of HP Brown because he’s red through and through’

and lastly…

I’ll attract a female partner before the General Election.

I think that sums up the odds of Labour winning Sheffield Hallam seat once and for all. Look I know Nick’s majority will be reduced, I know he won’t waltz it based on his name but I also am a man of numbers and logic. Despite what Labour activists believe, not everyone pours scorn on Nick Clegg. Plenty of people still believe that the Lib Dems are the better option than the Tories and in seats like these, that is the decision they have. UKIP will take votes from all three parties but nowhere near enough to challenge. Labour will pick up some disaffected Lib Dem voters, of that I have no doubt but look at the numbers. I know in politics people like to publicly say that they are always in it to win it but most of the time candidates are in it to fight the good fight, to give the electorate the option and to build momentum going forward.

So lets not all get our knickers in a twist (for the record at this juncture I am not wearing knickers but boxers) about Labour’s chances of pulling off a Michael Portillo moment. It isn’t going to happen. There will be 100 more interesting battles in March-May but sadly because of the narrative the media will have this seat as #1 because it fits their storyline and that my friends is oh so depressing, the media attempting to create the story because they want sex and excitement. The fact Labour aren’t giving their candidate here any money shows what they really think but still it is the good local man trying to beat the evil Nick Clegg, I mean who wouldn’t want that to be the big story of the campaign? It isn’t the big story of the campaign but the news media don’t report the news these days, they direct and set up the news narrative and that is a problem with modern society and modern news companies.

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Written by neilmonnery

January 12th, 2015 at 6:00 am

Posted in Politics

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On UKIP MP Douglas Carswell’s ‘clever’ editing behaviour on twitter…

with 5 comments

So just a quickie but it sums up why I get pissed off at politicians and particularly UKIP.

Douglas Carswell tweeted the following earlier today (it got RT into my timeline)

UKIP MP Douglas Carswell's tweet

UKIP MP Douglas Carswell’s tweet

The article linked to was this one

The actual article linked

The actual article linked

When you click on the twitter button this is what actually comes up to RT

What it comes up with if you hit the Twitter button on the article

What it comes up with if you hit the Twitter button on the article

So Carswell changes it to state that a Cameron adviser confirms that the UK will join the UK whereas the actual story is that former deputy Michael Hestletine’s personal opinion is that the UK will join the Euro but not in the foreseeable future.

It is shit like this that pisses me off. He has changed the tone of the tweet and actually completely misidentified Hestletine as a Cameron adviser when in fact he is just giving his own opinion and isn’t an adviser to the PM but who wants the truth eh? UKIP make a living on spreading misinformation that the public believe and clearly Douglas Carswell quickly got the memo that you win votes by lies and not trusting the public with the facts and the truth.

Doesn’t it just make you want to vomit and yet no doubt he is busy slapping himself on the back for being so smart as to change a view words to change the tone of a story knowing that many people will believe it and won’t even bother clicking on the link to see the actual facts behind the story.

I despair and have vomit to clean up. Thanks Douglas!

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Written by neilmonnery

December 16th, 2014 at 4:13 pm

Posted in Politics

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On the UKIP civil war in Southend…

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What do you get when you have a well known local political face gets beaten in an internal vote by a man who no-one has heard of and is clearly playing at politics? You get fall out. That is what you get. Some hurt feelings maybe but maybe just some wounds to let heal but no, oh no, this isn’t what has happened here in Southend and the local UKIP party and it is all out civil war.

Recently I have been sitting back on the political scene, certainly locally. I didn’t expect to still be living here by the time of the next election so thought it was a good time to just sit back and watch. Due to the slowdown in the housing market though, my landlord looks unlikely to sell so I may be around for a few months yet before I ride off into the sunset. Who knows what will happen in the intermeaning months but I might as well raise my head above the parapet on this issue because it is quite amusing.

Labour blogger Matthew Dent has blogged extensively on the matter both here and here. The long and the short of it though is UKIP had a clear candidate who they should have selected if they were serious about making a run at actually winning Rochford & Southend East next May, that man was James Moyies. He is the only UKIP councillor in Southend who has any real background in politics and is the leader of the UKIP group on the council. He stood in 2010 and it seemed a no brainer that he would be selected again. However UKIP decided to get their gun out and shoot themselves in the foot and Floyd Waterworth got the nod.

Mr. Waterworth is a councillor for Blenheim Park ward and from the rumblings that reach me (from all sides of the political spectrum) he’s a pretty lacklustre councillor. I’m not saying this as a knock on UKIP, all parties have better and shall we say less good councillors, that is human nature, but he doesn’t seem to take the job of councillor seriously. Fellow Blenheim Park councillor James Courtenay wrote on his blog about Cllr. Waterworth:

This hasn’t been too much of a problem for the people of Blenheim Park, since electing Floyd Waterworth in May… He’s barely been seen, failing to attend two out of the three meetings of the (full) Council and not attending the only opportunity he has had to review the decisions of the new Administration (scrutiny committee). He hasn’t attended a Neighbourhood Action Panel meeting – important to set the policing priorities in Blenheim- since being elected either. Still at least Blenheim Park still has me and Graham Longley to represent them. We may disagree, but at least we turn up to ensure Blenheim is kept on the map!

Not exactly a ringing endorsement is it? I know many say it is all politics but the more you get involved in politics, the more you see that many people from all sides of the political spectrum genuinely do care about what they do and doing the best they can for their residents. They may well disagree on what that is but they aren’t just playing at politics and doing it for the money or the cachet. If you are going to be a councillor then at least do what you were elected to do and what you are continue to be being paid to do – represent your constituents.

The fact this guy got the nod over Cllr. Moyies for the Rochford & Southend East seat means either one of two things, either lots of UKIP members locally really dislike Mr Moyies and are disappointed that he only led UKIP to several seats in May or something fishy is going on. I don’t profess to have any inside knowledge but if you were to push me, I know which of the two possibilities is more likely.

Yesterday’s Echo had the story Ukip sensationally suspends its own group leader on the issue and I suspect there is plenty more to come out on this subject. The long and short of it though is that internally in Southend, UKIP are an absolute mess. Whether the voters care or not is another matter entirely as the UKIP surge isn’t because of good local politics, its all about the national picture and this won’t effect their campaign too much I suspect. What it will do though is give other parties something to attack on UKIP, I mean if they are too busy fighting between themselves then how can they fight for their constituents? For many they won’t care but some will and those people might be the difference for UKIP.

I may be old school and believe you put your best people in the most winnable seats. That just seems sensible politics for me. Instead UKIP members have decided to go the opposite route and all hell has broken loose. Some would say they are a party of egomaniacs who are all about what they can get for themselves and not what they can do for the people they represent, some would say that, they really would…

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Written by neilmonnery

November 21st, 2014 at 4:00 pm

Posted in Politics

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Nigel Farage disgusting comments on HIV and my views of sex education

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Folks. Sometimes I wonder why I am involved and interested in politics. My political views are well known and the term, ‘bleeding heart liberal’ has been thrown at me more than once. I looked up the definition of the term, ‘a person of left-wing or liberal views (i.e. of helping the poor, siding with the oppressed) who is deemed to be excessively soft-hearted’ and I don’t think it is really justified in my case. I am not excessively soft hearted, I like to think that I have a good heart and firmly believe that our place as human beings is based primarily on equality and not on where we are lucky enough to live, or the circumstances we find ourselves in.

The problem is that there is a stirring in the UK, a stirring against that very notion. UKIP’s strength is coming primarily from people who believe that they are more important than others. If they have a problem then they deserve help but if another person has the same problem then they don’t. That I struggle with so much. I’m not saying that at times I’m not a selfish individual because at times sure I am, but I don’t ever think that people should be treated differently because of any circumstances.

This brings me on to an article I read this evening in the Independent. The piece entitled Nigel Farage on HIV: Why the Ukip leader’s remarks may actively hinder treatment in the UK made me so sad. I mean genuinely sad.

Nearly 60 countries from around the globe deny entry to people with HIV or Hepatitis B according to the United Nations. These countries include the Bahamas, the Kingdom of Brunei, Equatorial Guinea, Iran, Iraq, Jordan, Papua New Guinea, Qatar, Russia, Singapore, Solomon Islands, Sudan, the UAE and Yemen. All of them very liberal and forward thinking democracies. Well maybe not.

Nigel Farage thinks that Britain should only accept ‘quality people‘ and when pushed he responded, ‘people who do not have HIV to be frank. That’s a good start. And people with a skill.’ I mean c’mon folks. C’mon. I haven’t been exposed to HIV and as far as I know, no-one that I know has HIV so my knowledge of the condition isn’t great but I know enough to know that people with HIV can live for a significant amount of time and be extremely valuable members of society. HIV is a disease that can be spread but the UN say that restricting entry does nothing to protect the public health. The best way to deal with the disease is to better educate people.

I like to think I’m relatively educated. I’m not the smartest guy in the world but I’m also far from the least educated. Education is a vital issue that as a nation and as a race we need to embrace when it comes not only to HIV but also to the potential spread of all diseases. The more we know then the more we will know how to prevent the spread of diseases. The implementation of better sex education will do wonders compared to illiberal and draconian measures about banning people from entering the country if they have a disease.

This is something I’ve written about before. I was severely unprepared in my education with regards to sex. I mean the sex education I received was pathetic. It consisted of one day in Year 9, so I was what, 13? and if I’m being 100% honest with you, I wasn’t ready to learn. I thought the whole thing sounded disgusting and I had no interest in it. We all grow up at different rates and there will have been others in my year who surely felt the same. No doubt many of my fellow students were tremendously excited. Still I do remember most of what we were taught and I don’t think many people were adequately prepared by the sex education we received.

Now it is what, 18 odd years later and my knowledge is more rounded and I’m more prepared but that is due to my own personal education. It is clear to say that I’m not your typical person. I have not exactly been that sexually active in my life. I am sure there are others who, unlike me, may well have been extremely sexually active but be just as uneducated. This is a problem we have as a society and this I firmly believe has helped allow UKIP to form views like this and not see their whole façade shatter.

The thing is the Tories aren’t completely clean of this stain. In January, the following Conservative MPs, Stephen Phillips, Stephen Barclay, Tracey Crouch, Dominic Raab, Graham Brady, Charlotte Leslie, Mark Field, Nigel Mills, Jonathan Djanogly, Chris Kelly, Bob Blackman, Jonathan Lord, Craig Whittaker, Conor Burns, Karl McCartney and Sir Gerald Howarth added their names to an amendment that two Conservative MPs (who are doctors) in Dr. Philip Lee and Dr. Sarah Wollaston supported to do what Nigel Farage wants to do, to refuse entry to the UK of anyone who has HIV or Hep B. Do these people not understand that by doing so, it doesn’t protect the public or is it that they are pandering to those who are ready to be scared because they don’t know the facts?

I saw an interesting stat the other day, an Ipsos-Mori poll asked the public how big a percentage of the UK population was made up of non native people. The public said 31% whereas the actual number is 13%. When people don’t know the truth then they’ll form opinions based on incorrect information. This is the scariest part of politics and is the reason that UKIP are free to pretty much say whatever they want and are relatively teflon. People will easily believe something when it backs up their uninformed viewpoint. If you then attempt to bring facts to the case then they’ll tell you that facts can tell you anything. It shows that more people than ever before seem to be willing to close their minds and if that isn’t the scariest thing then I don’t know what is.

On the other side of the ledger it should be said that younger people are more open minded than they ever have been and that brings hope. They might not be voting Lib Dem for whatever reason but more than ever before would describe themselves as liberal. Young people are more accepting of people who are different. We are all unique and we should be free to express ourselves as such. Society though still dictates how many of us live our lives and we are afraid of ruining our reputations or careers because we may be different to other people. This is something our education system is woefully failing at, education isn’t about exam results but it is about preparing people for the world and letting people find who they are. This is key when it comes to sex education. Without good knowledge and an open mind then young people will think they are wrong or twisted or weird or depraved or immoral or whatever if they have urges that differentiate from the perceived ‘norm’. I speak with first hand knowledge on this matter.

In a way I feel as though I’m lucky that I didn’t let these feelings engulf me and make me feel worse than I initially did. I always had the thirst for knowledge and learned that things aren’t wrong or twisted or weird or depraved or immoral. They are just different. Nigel Farage, those Tories and a depressingly large number of the people in this country though are intolerant of those who are different. Banning those with HIV or Hep B from entering this country wouldn’t help solve the problem of the diseases spread but would further stigmatise those who have the disease.

What needs to be done is clear. It is so clear. People need to be better educated with facts instead of scare stories or school yard gossip. The better educated not only the youth of today, but all of us are, then the better we’ll understand what the problem is and how best to deal with it, instead of just pandering to an uneducated vocal majority who are scared because they don’t know the facts. As human beings the more scared we are then the more desperate and receptive we’ll be to solutions that don’t actually solve the problem, but sound like they will. This is a real problem that we need to understand and deal with. This is why UKIP are doing so well.

People are scared and in all honesty I don’t know why. If you are scared of what you don’t know then the best way to deal with that is to become more informed and not do what too many people are doing, putting their fears and worries on to a political party who inflates this fears and worries. Maybe that is just me but I don’t understand why people are willing to listen to rhetoric without knowing the facts. That isn’t using the brain that we are blessed to have to the best of its abilities. I don’t care if people have different opinions to me, that is life, but when they have such strong and radical opinions based on a severe lack or even no knowledge then that makes me sad. My opinions evolve as I gather more information on many, many things, as do everyone’s. Unless you allow yourself to gather more knowledge and information then your opinions will never change and that isn’t part of the human journey.

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Written by neilmonnery

October 12th, 2014 at 7:55 am

Posted in Politics

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Give Douglas Carswell his due – this is how you defect and what a UKIP coup

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I have written before that I think as a matter of principle that anyone who is elected but who decides to change their political allegiance should resign and go back to their electorate to seek re-election with their new party hat on. I firmly believe this is the case at both local and national level. This goes for members of any party going to members of any other party or indeed independents joining a party or vice versa.

This morning Douglas Carswell resigned from the Conservative Party and promptly joined UKIP. However in doing so he also resigned from his parliamentary seat and said that he intended to seek re-election as a UKIP MP in the by-election.

All I can say to him is essentially well played and no-one can really complain. He was indeed my MP very briefly when I lived in Harwich in 2005-2006, a seat he won in a very tight contest in 2005 from Labour. Due to boundary changes he took on the Clacton seat, much of which encompasses his former Harwich seat. He won very tightly in 2005 but he waltzed away with it in 2010 with over 50% of the vote and a majority in excess of 12,000.

Clacton profiles as traditionally a very safe Conservative seat but it also falls into the trap of profiling as a potential slip up seat if UKIP really surged. Plenty of the older generation live in this seat and could easily be swung to UKIP. The big problem the Tories have is that Douglas Carswell is a genuinely popular guy locally and plenty of his activist base and his voters will go with him due to the fact that they like him personally.

This is going to essentially be a flash vote based on Europe. He has left the Conservative Party based mainly on the fact he thinks that the party are not serious about change in terms of our relationship with the European Union. That is what he’ll campaign on. Real change between the UK and the EU. Scarily he could come through and pull it off.

Whatever I think about his politics though, you can’t knock how he has gone about this (bar maybe the fact he seemingly didn’t tell David Cameron about this in advance – that reeks of a lack of class). He is going back to the voters in Clacton and giving them the option of voting him back into Parliament. I suspect they may well do as the UKIP protest vote is still very much out there and couple that with a personal vote and they could well win.

Of course even if they don’t win, this move keeps UKIP very much in the news over the next few weeks. Whatever we all may think of Nigel Farage and his press team, you would struggle to really criticise how they run their media game. The BBC are wooed by them and the other news organisations aren’t too far behind. They find ways to keep their story, propaganda, manifesto, policies, whatever you call it, they find a way to keep it in the news and the more they do that, the more people are likely to start to believe that they can actually deliver on their promises.

Depressing.

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Written by neilmonnery

August 28th, 2014 at 10:53 am

Posted in Politics

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Labour shoot themselves in the foot in Southend

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Sometimes you think it is just about getting the best candidate for the gig, however sometimes it really isn’t if you actually want to win. The more you get exposed to the inner workings of politics you come to understand that to win you have to prioritise, you have to work out where your money is, how to spend it, where to spend it, how the activist is, where the activist base is, how best to use the activist base and so on.

When the 2015 General Election comes round it is highly unlikely I’ll be voting here as it seems now all but certain I’ll be moving out of Southend in the near future. However the seat where I am living is, despite what might be seen as an extremely safe Tory seat, actually not that safe. James Duddridge is an odds on favourite to win again but if you delve into the numbers (which I like to do) then you’ll see that he’s a big favourite, but a big favourite who could lose if everything goes against him. Should Duddridge fall short then it’d be Labour who’d pick up the seat.

Over in the west of Southend David Amess will win another term at as the MP. Of that there isn’t any doubt whatsoever barring a significant scandal coming out about him and even if that happens, I’d expect him to still hold on just. If he lost he’d lose to the Liberal Democrats.

So why am I talking about Labour shooting themselves in the foot? Well they’ve decided to field their arguably two strongest candidates in both seats. Cllr. Ian Gilbert beat out Cllr. Julian Ware-Lane for the Rochford & Southend East nomination. At this point it still was a long shot they could pull off the win here but the fact the Tories failed to win a single seat here in the council elections this year, coupled with the rise of UKIP and what will be a total collapse of the Liberal Democrat vote in the east of the town then Labour are live dogs. If Cllr. James Moyies stands in the seat for Parliament next May (as far as I’ve read there hasn’t been any decision on this) then Labour are very live dogs in this seat.

Labour lost by 11,000 odd last time around and 11,000 is quite a majority to overturn, certainly if the party trying to overturn it isn’t exactly sweeping all away in the council elections (which they aren’t) but lets look at the maths again.

The Lib Dems will lose 4,000-5,000 votes in the seat at a pretty well educated guess. You would expect Labour to pick up around half of them, so that majority is now around 9,000 to win. The Tories have been in power, so Labour now aren’t the party of government. This means that the vote for change now is in the hands of Labour and for whatever David Amess’ faults on the other side of the borough, people you speak to (who aren’t staunchly political) say that he is a good constituency MP, I don’t hear the same about James Duddridge. He is kind of an anonymous MP. So his name carries very little cachet. So his personal vote will not be strong.

Then throw in the UKIP factor. I don’t want to put words in Cllr. Gilbert’s mouth but you have to think that he is out in his garden every night looking up at the sky searching for a shooting star and has his ‘Please let UKIP stand here’ wish ready to go. The Tories got just a tick over 19,500 votes last time around, if UKIP took 20% of that vote (which is entirely possible and might even be a low estimate) then that is 4,000 plus votes. Now of course UKIP would also take votes from Labour, certainly in places like Kursaal but not to the same degree.

Strangely the key ward may actually be right here in Thorpe Bay, where Labour are nowhere and will get very few votes. The Tories should sweep this seat in a General Election and this ward votes. If UKIP (or heck how about an ambitious independent?) could make serious inroads into the Tory vote here then it is really game on.

All sounds good for Labour, no?

Well, yes and no. To win they have to throw every resource they have at Rochford & Southend East. They need to run a skeleton campaign in the west and put all their eggs in the one basket. They have a straight choice whether to go for first in the east and finish third in the west, or settle for second in the east in an attempt to finish second in the west. Personally a shot at first and settling for third seems like a no brainer.

Yet they have chosen a man who will certainly go and try to win in the west in Cllr. Ware-Lane. Admirable yes, good politics, most certainly not. Good strategy wins elections often just as much as good policy. I just cannot see Cllr. Ware-Lane being a paper candidate who would spend his time in the east trying to get Cllr. Gilbert elected, which would certainly be the best decision for them strategically. Of course I could be wrong and whilst Cllr. Ware-Lane is saying all the right things publicly, he knows the best thing for Labour would be to hit the east and support Cllr. Gilbert to the fullest of his abilities.

In 2010 the Lib Dems had the most votes in Oxford yet won neither seat, they came a close second in both seats. Had they concentrated on one seat, either seat, they would have won. There are many stories similar to this. If Southend Labour want to gain an MP then they know all their eggs have to be in the east because they have a shot of winning. If they decide to fight both seats to any significant degree then it is highly likely we’ll end up with two Conservative MP’s again across the two seats.

If I was a betting man I’d back Amess and Duddridge to both be returned to parliament next May but on a very good day for the Labour party, they have a shot at dethroning Duddridge. Amess is safe as houses but Duddridge, whilst looking safe could go if the dominoes all fall the wrong way for him and the right way for Labour. So it should be full steam ahead for Labour in the east but you just get the sense that by selecting Cllr. Ware-Lane in the west that they aren’t putting all their eggs in one basket and on this occasion, that would have been the most logical strategy if their end goal was to return an MP to parliament in 2015.

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Written by neilmonnery

August 22nd, 2014 at 11:55 am

UKIP MEP Louise Bours wants to bring back the death penalty. Quelle Surprise.

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Why a UKIP MEP is sending me a Press Release I’ll never know. Maybe so I’ll write about it on this very blog and in that case her devious plan has worked. Although a) I doubt it was devious and b) I doubt she has any idea who I am but still here we are.

So yes, using the 50 year anniversary of the last execution in the UK, Louise Bours has decided now is the time to get the national debate going about the death penalty. She fired out the following e-mail to many people seemingly:

“The public are fed up with the government’s concentration on the rights of the criminal, and are demanding the rights of victims and their families should take priority.

“The death penalty won’t bring back a tortured and murdered child, but it seems natural justice that the family will know the killer has paid the ultimate price and isn’t still breathing when their child is not.

“An innocent child has more of a right to life than the monster that took their life, so I see no ethical reason why we are obliged to keep him alive.

“Why should double cop-killer Dale Cregan be kept alive, after shooting them more than 8 times and using a hand-grenade. His crime wasn’t impulsive or emotional, he lured them in with a fake 999 call and he’d killed two other people prior to that.

“Paul Bone, the father of murdered WPC Fiona Bone agrees that the death penalty should be brought back, and as his life has been devastated by a cold-blooded killer, I think his views should be listened to.

“The killers of Lee Rigby despise the UK and want to kill us all, yet we have to use tax-payers money to keep them alive and well in prison, and look after their ‘human-rights’.

I do love the fact that human rights is in inverted commas. Yeah those humans having their human rights. However the key issue is what she says with regards to Paul Bone. She believes that his views should be taken into account with regards to what should happen to the person who took away his loved one. What would happen if say a husband or a wife was pro death penalty but a mother or a father was against? Whose opinion should carry more weight? Should people who have been wronged have first dibs with regards what should happen to the person who wronged them? That to me sounds like a very slippery slope.

Look, I make no secret that I am anti death penalty, always have been and always will be. Taking a life is wrong and two wrongs do not make a right. That is something that many of us have had drummed into us throughout our upbringing. I still firmly believe this. I know many people are pro death penalty but only for those who are beyond doubt guilty, at what point do we go from not guilty or guilty to not guilty, guilty or guilty guilty?

Also she makes a distinction between the right to life. Some people have more rights to life than others. Therefore she doesn’t believe that we are all created equal. That is something I have a huge issue with. I am no better or worse as a human than the next person. I may be better or worse at many things but in terms of being a human and my right to live – I don’t see myself as better or worse than anyone else.

So a UKIP MEP is all for bringing back the death penalty. This is probably not exactly a huge surprise. Apparently she was on Question Time and was more shouty and aggressive than Joey Barton and Piers Morgan. Again that doesn’t surprise me. UKIP seem to believe that those who shout loudest have the most important things to say and by the sounds of it Louise Bours fully endorses that philosophy so I think we’ll have to be prepared to listen to her for many years yet. As for her views on the death penalty, she is fully entitled to them, I vehemently disagree and on this issue I morally will always do so.

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Written by neilmonnery

August 13th, 2014 at 10:39 am

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Vote Green, Get UKIP. What uninformed bull-plop from local Labour bloggers

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A month or so ago Cllr. Ware-Lane wrote the blog post entitled Vote Green get UKIP and I shook my head in despair. It was utter bollocks and he knew it but I thought I would let it pass. I have come to understand that Julian’s knowledge of basic maths and reality isn’t the best. He uses one example where had the Greens not stood a candidate in Kursaal ward then Labour may have won and therefore concludes that if you vote Green then you get UKIP. One example folks. One example.

He decided to ignore other examples of where the maths would have been different had certain other parties not won. For example the January West Leigh by-election. Did we see a plethora of ‘Vote Labour, Get Tory’ blog posts? I don’t think so, even though had Labour not stood a candidate in that by-election then the likelihood is that the Liberal Democrat candidate would have won. This happens everywhere. In every council and in every parliamentary constituency. Certain parties will win or lose not because of the strength of their support but because of how the support against them is spread. If it is focused on one party then there is trouble, if it is spread amongst several parties then there is not. That is FPTP politics folks.

So anyway Matthew Dent weighed in recently on the same topic. Splitting the vote: Vote Green, Get UKIP where he comes to pretty much the same conclusion. That being that voting for the Green Party is pointless in a ward where they have no chance of winning and if they don’t want a UKIP councillor then they should back the party in the best position to stop UKIP. All well and good but Labour don’t do that so why should other parties fall in line?

There is an argument that parties should do reciprocal deals within boroughs to help get the most hated opposition out, whoever they are. In Southend that could mean Labour agreeing to not standing candidates in places like West Leigh, Prittlewell and St. Laurence where they are not winning any soon soon and can only help split the vote in the favour of the Tories and UKIP. In return this could mean Liberal Democrats could choose not to run in places like Kursaal, St. Lukes and Victoria, places where they aren’t winning any time soon. This would help both parties gain councillors but it would also stop potential Labour and Liberal voters in those wards from voting for who they actually want to vote for but is that fair or right?

Cllr. Ware-Lane, himself a West Leigh resident chose to support the Labour candidate unsurprisingly in the West Leigh by-election even though he knew it was a wasted vote and would help ensure the Tories won. Did he deride himself for doing this or did he exercise his democratic choice for voting for the party he wanted to win instead of choosing to back the party most likely of toppling the administration party at the time? I think we know the answer to that and this Vote Green, Get UKIP bollocks is exactly the same but in this instance quoted potentially hurt his party, Labour.

It is an issue with our electoral system but it is what it is and people need to stop moaning about it. The country had the chance to move towards a system that would enable the voter to have more influence on that make-up of their parliament (and no doubt councils would have followed) but they decided that because it was a Lib Dem idea that they didn’t want it. I would bet a fair few quid that if we went to the polls in this UKIP surge era then the vote would be a hell of a lot closer but that ship has sailed for now.

So unless Labour (and other parties) want to do deals borough wide then this is going to be the norm. Parties are going to win with under 50% of the vote and when in all likelihood the majority of those who voted wouldn’t want them to win. As politicians, or activists, or just members of the electorate then we are just going to have to deal with that fact. If people want to go out and vote Green then fair do’s and they shouldn’t be blamed or have it insinuated that their vote is the reason a party like UKIP won Kursaal ward. Most people vote for who they want to vote for and some choose to vote for the party most likely to defeat the party they dislike the most.

In some places Labour voters help get in the Tories or UKIP. In some places Green voters help get in Tories or UKIP. In some places Liberal voters help get in Tories or UKIP. In some places UKIP voters help get in Labour. In some places Tories help the Green party to win. In some places the SNP help the Liberals win. This thing happens everywhere and in every direction. To claim that a vote for the Green party helps UKIP citing one or two examples and ignoring all the other examples from all parties across the nation is just pure politics and not reality and that disappoints me frankly. It is lazy and it is cheap but most importantly it is wrong to make sweeping generalisations based on such minuscule ‘evidence’ and I’d hope for better but sadly I don’t expect it.

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Written by neilmonnery

August 1st, 2014 at 9:14 am

Ipsos Mori June Issues – Immigration tops the economy for the first time

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Oh people. How you make me despair. The economy for the first time in recent history is not top of the list of issues that people think are effectively the UK (immigration has tied with the economy before) as immigration now has a sensational six-point lead in the latest Ipsos Mori issue index.

Ipsos Mori June Index

June Issues Index

This is undoubtedly due in part to the European elections and the amount of air time that UKIP have been getting. The more rubbish they spew the more people believe it and therefore the more airtime they get and therefore more people believe it and so on. It just goes on and on and the media’s determination to build up UKIP has led to more people worrying about our immigration policy than how the economy is doing. Just how backward is that?

I know on one hand you could argue that this is good news for the coalition parties, people aren’t worrying about the economy as much and therefore it gives credence to why the coalition formed in the first place. If come polling day in 2015 the economy is bouncing back nicely, unemployment going down and job creation going up then it is likely that both parties can look in the mirror and think they’ve done a good job.

Problem though is that if this polling data is accurate then people care more about immigration policy and I think it is fair to say that these people aren’t the type of people that are worried that our borders aren’t open enough. The isolationists are starting to makes their voices heard. These are the people that blame foreigners for their own problems instead of actually finding the problem. Do I blame foreigners for the fact I’m unattractive to the female species? No, no I don’t. Are foreign men coming over here and wooing females that I would have had a chance with? I doubt it. I’m just not an attractive man. Of course at this point I’m kinda taking the mick but I think you get my point (although my attractiveness and lack of it has been well researched and backed up by copious amounts of evidence).

People are worried about foreign people coming over here and abusing our benefits system. You know what, some do. You know who also abuses the benefits system? British people. Is it ok that British people abuse the benefits systems? Do they have more rights to abuse it because they were born here? Nigel Farage abuses the expenses system at the European Parliament and he is lauded for it. Other people abuse the expenses system in Parliament and they go to jail and the public derides them. It doesn’t make sense. It is like there is one rule for one set of people and one for another. It is a joke. It goes against the basic principle that we are all equal.

Ding, Ding, Ding – we have a winner! What’s this? You have won the award for hitting the nail on the head of the UKIP voter – they believe that we are not all created equal. People that are different should not have the same rights, when I say people who are different, what I really mean is people who do not share their philosophies and thought processes with. Of course not everybody that votes UKIP believes that but it is a general point.

Obviously I have a different viewpoint. For example the Ipsos Mori issues index has the NHS as the fourth largest issue facing the country today. You know another thing? If UKIP had its way and pulled us out of Europe and basically closed our borders then the NHS would collapse. There are so many EU and non-EU staff within the NHS that we should be eternally grateful that they choose to come over here and provide vital care for us. If I am in a traffic accident then I don’t care what nationality the doctors and nurses are and nor should anyone else. Caring about that is about as flat out dumb as you can get but heck people do. It beggars belief.

The point though is the media are fanning the flames. The majority of people in this country care mostly about the economy. I know this not because I’m spoken to every single person in the land but because it is sound logic. If people have a job and have money then they can afford food and a roof over their heads. That always has to be the first thing on the minds of any person. Whether foreigners are working here or claiming benefits here should never ever be the most important issue. Never.

This data doesn’t shock me although it does sadden me. The issues of the EU and immigration were always going to rise the more people heard from UKIP. The more people get told that something is a problem then the more they will believe it. I just hope the other parties don’t just lurch to the right because of this type of data. I fear that at least two of the parties will and that in itself will fan the flames even more. The more people get told something is a problem the more they will believe it and if UKIP, Conservatives and Labour all chase these votes then boy we are in for a depressing feeling in this country for many years to come.

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Written by neilmonnery

June 27th, 2014 at 11:44 am

Posted in Politics

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