The Rambles of Neil Monnery

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On why Labour are currently in a crisis – edition #396…

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So I’m there having a perusal of the Guardian website today and I click on a story about the 1997 Election triumph of the party. An absolute landslide that led to 13 years of Labour rule while the Tories sat in opposition and never got close to winning back power. I scroll down to the comments and the one with the moves up votes sums up everything:

No mention of the fact that Blair, Mandelson & Co. rendered Labour unelectable by moving so far away from Labour values, starting illegal foreign wars and stealing billions from ordinary people’s pensions?

So much that’s wrong now has its roots in that crowd – the refugee crisis and growth of ISIS? Blair and his mate Bush kicked that off. The growth of buy-to-let? That’s a response to the fact that we can’t trust the security of our pensions and needs some way to fund retirement.

And now Labour has a leader who actually represents Labour values and the Guardian can’t wait to destroy him. Yes Labour’s in trouble but a lot of the blame rests with the ‘nu-labor-lite’ Blairites and the Guardian.

Lets start at the beginning. On an article outlining how these men made the party very electable (indeed so electable they won three consecutive elections with huge majorities) a Labour supporters says they made the party unelectable. That is clearly not true.

As for moving so far away from Labour values, did they really? They inched towards the centre ground but they weren’t a million miles away from old Labour. Also has old Labour values won any General Election in the past two generations? Not so much.

Clearly the growth of extreme Islamic terrorism has some roots in the Iraq conflict but it could easily be argued that Al-Qaeda’s attack on the United States in 2001 was the real catalyst for those tensions to rise on both sides.

As for the Guardian wanting to destroy Jeremy Corbyn. That is paranoia talking. This newspaper after their endorsement of Nick Clegg in 2010 has run so far to the left that Corbyn himself probably thinks they’ve gone too far. They have been extremely strong supporters of his and have only cooled in recent months as his support has clearly ebbed away and most impartial observers can see he is leading the Labour party down the wrong path.

You win in the UK from the centre-left or centre-right. This isn’t exactly rocket science. Whichever of the two natural parties of government is closer to the centre will win an election. I know my lot went into coalition in 2010 and became a party of government but for most people, they are voting for one of the big two, whose leader will become PM.

Labour’s wild lurch to the left is very dangerous for many people who naturally want a party of government near the centre because it allows the Conservative party to move to the right and still be closer to the centre than Labour. If things were different and people saw the Lib Dems has a natural party of government, it would open up a huge chasm for the party to fill up. Sadly that big gap will pick up voters but not enough.

Jeremy Corbyn’s leadership is a god send to the right-wing branch of the Tory party. If Labour had a strong position on the EU and a leader who was electable to the electorate as a whole then they would be in a position to both a) win back power and b) would stop the Tories going too far to the right. If they had a young Tony Blair who wasn’t tainted by Iraq then they would likely be planning for another decade in power after a big win in 2020.

Yet some Labour members can’t abide with this and will blame everyone and everything on Labour’s woes bar the leadership. If it walks like a duck, quacks like a duck then it is probably a duck. If a leader has dire polling ratings and is 17 points behind the Tories when at the same time in the previous parliament, his predecessor was 11 points up then its probably because people don’t like him or his policies. It isn’t the fault of Tony Blair or the Guardian et al.

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April 11th, 2017 at 12:30 pm

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On Jeremy Corbyn’s continued obliviousness to the issue that matters most to most of us…

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Jeremy Corbyn has been one of the political heavyweights of the past 18 months. He came from left field to sweep to power as the leader of the Labour party and then followed that up by winning a second leadership contest. He was entrenched as the man in place to take it to the Conservative Party and lead the voice of the opposition. He had it all but chose to stumble and after a while the media are starting to notice.

Take today for example. Corbyn made a speech and it didn’t even get a soundbite on the lunchtime news. All it got were some pictures and the presenter talking over them saying he made said speech. Going to the Guardian I see that the speech was about putting the NHS and education at the heart of Labour’s local election campaigns and here’s the thing, they aren’t issues that are moving the needle right now.

I am pretty sure that the Labour party have said we have x amount of days to save the NHS on multiple occasions in my lifetime alone. Yet despite Ed Miliband putting that at the heart of his campaign in 2015, he lost.

Now as I’ve believed for quite a while now, the whole identity of politics is changing. People are less likely to identify themselves as ‘conservative’ or ‘liberal’ or ‘socialist’ etc. and more ‘Pro-EU’ or ‘Anti-EU’ – that is the battleground that politics is currently being waged on. People care about what is going to happen next regarding Brexit and how it will affect their lives and the future of their children. That is what people are worried about and not what is going on with the NHS or in education.

I’m not saying if this is right or wrong but that is just how it is at this juncture. On the EU and Brexit you need to have a cohesive and identifiable position. The Lib Dems are clearly lobbing all their Easter eggs in the pro-EU basket. UKIP and the Tories have a tonne of chocolate covered products too and they are all in baskets labelled ‘Anti-EU’ and then we get to the Labour Party. They say that the will of the people has to be served but that they’ll fight the Tories at every stage to get the best deal for the people of the United Kingdom. Yet these words ring hollow as they’ve not fought yet and instead laid down and let the Tories tickle their tummies.

This breathtaking arrogance hasn’t gone unnoticed. The polling data has long seen Jeremy Corbyn’s numbers go down and the Labour party despite being in opposition being 15%+ down in Westminster voting intentions. At this stage in the last parliament Ed Miliband had a sizeable lead in the polls. It only ebbed away when people started to look closer at him and his team and struggled to see them leading the country.

At this stage of the parliament with a government having to deal with a line-ball issue that is splitting the country in half, the opposition should be flying high. They aren’t and the reason for that isn’t Jeremy Corbyn per se but a lack of direction and that certainly comes from the top. His position on the EU has never been a strong one. He kinda likes some portions of the EU but not others and deep down no-one really knows where he stands and if he doesn’t have a strong position on the most important issue this generation will ever face, then no amounts of excellent policies on the NHS or education will cut through (not that we have any evidence he has any of these anyway).

Article 50 has been triggered. The lead of the Pro-EU lobby is clearly Tim Farron and Nick Clegg. Most people in the street will agree that at least they know where the Lib Dems stand on this and will either like what they are hearing from them or hate it. At least they know. When it comes to Labour and Jeremy Corbyn people just don’t know and that is a scary place to be for the Labour party.

Until Jeremy Corbyn and Labour have that clear (and believable) position on what should happen next regarding our future dealings with the EU then they will struggle. Talk about the NHS and education all you want. It sounds great and is vitally important but at this moment in time nothing compares to the short, medium and long-term future than these Article 50 talks and the public know it. Until Labour stand for something on this, they’ll continue to drift towards being an afterthought…

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April 4th, 2017 at 2:52 pm

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On the ‘special’ relationship between Trump and the UK…

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Since Donald Trump has been elected as the 45th president of the United States and the rest of the world watched that hand-holding moment between Theresa May and Trump during her visit to Washington, it’s safe to say that there have been some awkward questions posed about the ‘special relationship’ between the UK and US. As a country, it is safe to say that Britain has found it hard to come to terms with Donald Trump, TV personality and thin-skinned businessman, being elected for president. His win (not by popular vote, mind!) came as a particularly damning blow when there was repeated evidence that he did all manner of terrible things that would, in any other situation, be deemed completely unacceptable. So what does a future of working alongside Donald Trump look like for the UK?

One thing that has caught the attention of so many people is the similarities between UK’s Brexit and the US’s decision to make Trump president. It seems that there is a growing frustration amongst certain groups of people in both countries – mainly those from a working class background and who are white – that feel underrepresented and disheartened with their country. This begs the question of whether the US and Britain will find a common purpose and look to solve issues that have previously been ignored by other governments?

In fact, people seem to feel so disheartened with the election of Donald Trump, that there has been an abundance of online and offline mockeries regarding the President. Firstly, there are the memes found across social media on a daily basis, and then there’s a number of online games like the Ladbrokes Trump White House game where you can actually paint the White House and have an apocalyptic background – all created in ‘honour’ of the new President.

A vision of Trump's White House come 2020...?

A vision of Trump’s White House come 2020…?

Despite the May-Trump alliance however, Scottish First Minister Nicola Sturgeon is set to snub Donald Trump during her visit to the US, and the UK has already created a number of mocking murals regarding the ‘special relationship’ between Trump and the UK Prime Minister.

Many people are also wondering what the special relationship between the UK and US will mean for the Special Forces, nuclear weapons and intelligence services in the UK. It is wondered whether the relationship between Trump and May will remain strong when it comes to something as tentative as nuclear proliferation and war, to name but a few. With Trump also being hinted as being in close communication with Putin and the Russian government, this could cause massive problems when it comes to developing improved relations between the UK and US.

Some are labelling the ‘special relationship’ between the UK and US at the moment as a way of ensuring Britain’s security when it comes down to trade post-Brexit. Many people are fearing that the lack of definitive deal making between Britain and the EU when it comes to trade agreements means that the UK is fearing what this will mean when it comes down to our economy and place in the world when it comes to selling our goods and services. Uncertainty has proven to be a massively powerful tool when it comes predicting the future of the UK and, with the value of the pound falling, it seems we have more reason to cling on to America’s support than ever before.

Diving Into The Deep Unknown

Perhaps one of the most intriguing aspects of the special relationship between the US and the UK is that many claim that we are jumping into the unknown. All that we know about the President of the United States thus far is based from what he has said and what he had done in the last few months. As Trump is proven to be easily angered and erratic in his behaviour, it is difficult to know what steps Theresa May, for example, should be taking.

Ultimately, Britain needs to be keeping a close eye on its future, which gives rise to the significance of the relationship between Trump and May. It seems best, at least for now, to watch how President Trump goes about his presidency and watch his every move rather than disregard him entirely. As they say, keep your friends close and your enemies closer…

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Written by Ian Pope

April 3rd, 2017 at 11:38 am

Posted in Politics

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On Nick Clegg, timing and the chance of a political comeback…

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Oh what could have been…

I didn’t watch last nights Question Time Brexit Special because well, I tend to not watch Question Time in general but also a mate popped over to catch up. In fact in the past five years I’ve only seen one regular episode (when it was from Portsmouth after the government had given the two new aircraft carriers to a Scottish dockyard) but anyway I digress. I woke up this morning and was scrolling through my time line. One thing struck me (apart from a fellow SIAD grad and a football commentator reminding me of the fact Michael Gove existed and that Sarah Vine wakes up next to him daily, for which I am still traumatised) and that was that people are missing Nick Clegg. I’m not surprised.

If you go back through this very blog you’ll see numerous blurbs from me extolling the virtues of the MP for Sheffield Hallam. I make no bones about it. I agree with Nick. I did then, I do now and I pretty much have done so for the vast majority of the times in-between. The fact he unfollowed me on twitter hasn’t lessened my feelings towards the man (but the fact I’m bringing it up shows it is still galling…)

The thing is had things been different. Lets say Chris Huhne had become leader of the Lib Dems instead of Nick when they faced off against each other. Or had say Gordon Brown not said what he did with a hot mic about Gillian Duffy. Had the Greek economy not collapsed several days before the 2010 UK General Election. Had Lib Dem Conference done what Nick wanted to got rid of the pledge about tuition fees (because Nick knew in any coalition talks that was a big obstacle to overcome). Had the instant poll after the second leaders debate put Clegg ahead of Cameron by 1% instead of the other way round. Had just one of these things gone the other way then in all likelihood history will have been very different. Not just for Clegg personally but also for the country and the Lib Dems. Fine margins…

In my (albeit) brief lifetime (ok I am in my mid 30s now – eek) there have been two truly inspirational politicians in the UK. One was Tony Blair and the other is Nick Clegg. Whether you like them or their politics, they were the two people that you could see were a) natural leaders but more importantly b) had the potential to be great.

Blair’s legacy will forever be tarnished by Iraq and people forget that those Labour governments were not bad. They won three landslide elections on the spin (including one after the Iraq War) for a reason. Not just because the Tory party kept finding leaders who couldn’t lead their way out of a paper bag or inspire people but because the general quality of life was getting better for many people.

For Clegg his legacy will be tied to tuition fees and a pledge he was fully committed to had he been Prime Minister but one he knew he couldn’t deliver in coalition. I have spent many calories typing away words about the difference between having a majority government and being a junior partner in the coalition but those words fell flat. Raw anger won and logic became something to be spoken about in hushed corners fearing that the mob would overhear.

Then 2015 happened. Most political pundits expected the Lib Dems to once again hold the balance of power. Ed Miliband was as hopeless a leader as expected and couldn’t deliver a Labour victory whilst the rest of the country decided they hated the coalition government so much that they would punish the junior party in that coalition. Let the Tories be free to do what they wanted is what people cried as they buried the Lib Dems with a hearty laugh and a cheer as they walked away from the ballot boxes.

Nick Clegg did the only thing he could, fall on his sword. The country had spoken and instead of another five years taming the right-wing Euro-sceptic part of the Conservative party. He would become a backbencher and watch as they dragged the government away from where most people actually wanted them to be. He would refuse a part in Tim Farron’s initial cabinet as he either felt like he had to lick his wounds or thought he was just too toxic. Then the EU Referendum came and things changed. The Cleggster was unleashed and he had that swagger back.

When people ask me who I would like to see as leader of the Lib Dems and Prime Minister it won’t surprise you as to my answer. Yet I know deep down that sadly that will never be the case. Tuition fees is a millstone around that neck and even though plenty of worse things are going on in government (both then and now) too many people would point to that one thing. It saddens me greatly that a man who could have been one of the great leaders of the world (yes I know some just spit out their cup of tea at that notion but I stand by it) will never have the opportunity to fulfil his potential.

For now though he’s become arguably the most articulate politician of the Anti-Brexit coalition. Tim Farron has been a clear and strong voice for it. Ken Clarke has been fighting from within and has shown deep courage in his convictions. Nicola Sturgeon is trying to use it as a lever to get an independent Scotland but Nick Clegg just gets it. He still has it. Put Clegg in a situation where people only listen to words with an open mind and no preconceived ideas then he’s the greatest asset the Anti-Brexit coalition has – by far.

The problem is though is that a situation enough people put themselves in? I fear not but after nigh on two years out of the limelight and out of the daily grind of the newspapers and comedians using him as their favourite low fruit punching bag then maybe the toxicity is evaporating. Will it ever happen to the degree that he could either lead the party again or potentially have a roll to play in a future coalition or Lib Dem government? I doubt it (and lets be honest – we have no idea if he wants to stand again in 2020 when he surely has a plethora of offers out there).

This is why I often look at things like timing and see it as so important. Not just in this example but in life for all of us. Sometimes opportunities come along at the right time but also sometimes the right thing happens but at the wrong time. Sometimes events conspire for you, sometimes against you. Had Nick Clegg not been leader of the Lib Dems in 2010 or been Deputy Prime Minister in a coalition government and was now the fresh faced face of the Anti-Brexit movement, I suspect that movement would have its inspirational leader and that ball wouldn’t just be rolling, it would be gathering pace at a vast rate of knots.

I’ll leave you with these two questions:

Who would you trust to get the best deal for the UK in any Brexit negotiations, David Davis or Nick Clegg?

Who would you prefer to see as our Foreign Minister, Boris Johnson or Nick Clegg?

I suspect the answer is Clegg – to both.

I hope you enjoyed this blog post. Please leave any comments or contact me directly via the E-Mail Me link on the Right Hand Nav. You can stay in touch with the blog following me on Twitter or by liking the blog on Facebook. Please share this content via the Social Media links below if you think anyone else would enjoy reading.

Written by neilmonnery

March 28th, 2017 at 2:07 pm

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On the Unite for Europe March – The Sun Comments Edition…

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Ah comments. Where people go to blow off steam. Here are a few of the comments from The Sun’s article on the march today…

Just shows you they are all for their selfs, we are not quitting just getting out to better ourselves.

This really doesn’t make too much sense now does it? Why are they marching for their selfs? (surely it should’ve been themselves?) and we are quitting, these people are Quitlings and quitters.

Funny they march against brexit and trump but not islamic terrorism…

To be fair someone did reply to this comment saying you march against something democratic, which makes perfect sense. I don’t think many people need to hold a rally against terrorism of any sort as I think we are all united against such acts…

Deluded.

Why?

The great unwashed have no respect.

So people who marched today are unwashed? How does the commenter know such facts? Were they privy to every person’s bathroom behaviour this morning before they left for the march or are they talking out of their own backside? You decide…

they should be all deported, we are at war with the kebab wallahs and these bell end are doing this

Ah here we go. This country should only be for people who agree with the ideals of this particular commenter. So people who were born in the UK should be deported for having a different point of view on a subject. I think all people who don’t use capital letters at the start of sentences should be deported. It makes just as much sense…

these people should be relocated in belguim

If we can find belguim then I’m willing to relocate there. Maybe we should add people who can’t spell the name of a country to the list of people who should be deported…

It’s such a nice day. Haven’t these insects got anything important in their own lives worth doing instead because all these marches are doing is wasting their time. Ain’t gonna make a difference I’m afraid, losers.

Whilst I agree it is highly unlikely to make any difference, when you call fellow human beings insects, you’ve already lost the argument.

K N O B S

I know you are but what am I?

Clueless, disresepctful scum who are too stupid to see that it’s the rotten EU who have made life so much easier for the murderers who want to come here and kill us.

Ah so people who marched today are Scum. See my previous comment about calling someone an insect and already losing the argument. Also why is peaceful marching disrespect, wait I mean, disresepctful? I won’t even comment about the murderer bullshit…

true brits don’t quit! idiots cannot see the irony of what they are protesting. the eu wants no borders and want to populate the entire europe with 3rd world people who many have no respect for the country they infest. and they want us to pay for it. they can all cluck off! remoaners do not understand that poorer citizens of poorer countries will keep on flooding into wealthier countries where the infrastructure and society goes to pot! can any of these idiots argue that what is happening to housing, nhs, benefits, education and so many other services have been under siege to such an extent that it cannot cope?

True Brits don’t quit but apparently those who are marching to stay in the EU should quit. That makes sense. As for the EU wanting to populate the entire continent with third world people. I’m not sure that is strictly accurate…

In a democratic world they are free to have their march to prove what sore losers they are. Brexit has started if they like it or not, the queen has signed it off as it’s okay with her. Off with their heads.

They are free to march but they should have their heads cut off. Well ok then…

Been told by a friend whose been near this March that most of the accents he’s been hearing are either European or Scottish . Only what I’ve been told.

This person has no friends.

It’s a shame as these are the type of people who should have been hurt not the innoccnt ones.

Protesters should be hurt by terrorism and not innocent, I mean innoccnt ones. Interesting PoV that…

The under 50,s haven’t known this country before EU. What they forget is we ruled ourselves and many other countries for centuries and can do it again. The Queen has signed and that’s good enough. I don’t want my country to be taken over by the ignorant uneducated people who,refuse to integrate and expect us to conform to their. Archaic ways. They are turning towns into slums. If they don’t like it they know where the airports are or take a boat I don’t care ….sod off.

He doesn’t want the country to be taken over by ignorant uneducated people but does think we can rule many other countries again…

When their child is being rushed to hospital in an ambulance, I hope every single one of them will forgive me for staging protests blocking the roads and costing so much money there will be none left to treat their children as that is the world they seem to think they have a right to f*** up.

She seems nice…

Look I’m no big fan of protests and I can’t see it achieving a damned thing but we live in a democracy. If people want to peacefully protest anything then they have that right. Yet some people think that anyone who disagrees with them should be deported, or have their child unable to get to a hospital or have their heads chopped off. These people call themselves British and are proud of that. I’m just ashamed of them.

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March 25th, 2017 at 5:57 pm

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On what could happen if George Galloway jumps into the Manchester Gorton by-election…

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All bets as they say would be off.

I am on the record elsewhere as saying I think the Lib Dems will end up at around 3/1 to make the impossible possible and take one of Labour’s safest seats away from them. It would be one of the most sensational by-election swing in modern political history but as it stands they’ll probably fall short. Yet if George Galloway decides he wants to muddy the waters…

In a piece entitled George Galloway may enter race to become Gorton MP in the Guardian over the weekend, a ‘source close to George Galloway’ stated that he was considering standing but had actually been on the campaign trail for three weeks. He believes according to the source that the constituency fits in perfectly with his political beliefs and that, ‘You’re looking at the perfect demographics – big Asian working class community, relatively poor. I think he thinks he can represent their feelings and aspirations.’

Of course should he jump into the race suddenly people will start to paw over just what happened when he swept to a stunning Bradword West by-election win in 2012. He used the turmoil within the local Labour party to his advantage and lets us just look at the local Labour party in Manchester Gorton. Are they in turmoil? Well I think the answer to that would be yes, yes they are.

Now demographically the seat is slightly different to Bradford West but they do share some similarities due to the significant Asian population. The difference seems to be there doesn’t seem (from the outside looking in anyway) the tension that was apparent in Bradford West. This would make it harder for Galloway to use the same tactics as successfully should he decide to run at Manchester Gorton.

What would definitely happen should he throw his hat into the ring is all hell would break loose. The by-election would be played on a different playing field. In all likelihood Labour and Galloway would go at each other and take their eye off the ball. The Lib Dems are already up and running in the seat and their first leaflet shows Theresa May and Jeremy Corbyn together in front of 10 Downing Street trying to show that they are arm in arm on Brexit. This is a clear attempt to follow the Richmond Park strategy of this by-election primarily over the consequences of leaving the EU. It worked last year but could it work again in a seat that whilst voting Remain, didn’t do so in the numbers that Richmond Park did?

This is the big question that people are unsure of. Of course one key difference is that in Manchester Gorton the incumbent was a Labour MP. An extremely popular one. Yet in the national polls Labour as a party continue to at best stagnate and in general drop a point or two as Jeremy Corbyn’s leadership continues to stumble along. This would be the first Labour/Lib Dem battle since the end of the coalition and the EU Referendum. It is a free hit for the Lib Dems. They have nothing to lose and a good showing (anything 30%+) would be scary for Labour knowing that they are suddenly in danger of losing many of their Lib Dem gains from 2015.

When it was clear we’d have a by-election I thought that Labour would win but with a severely reduced majority. This makes sense considering in 2005 and 2010 the Lib Dems had very good showings but like it did near enough everywhere, their vote collapsed in 2015. Labour are in the weeds and the Lib Dems suddenly are not as toxic as they once were. Still winning Manchester Gorton should be a step too far unless Labour are totally done.

Yet if George Galloway does get involved then the current 7/1 you can get around on the Lib Dems seems like an incredible price. For the punters it is very much a speculative bet hoping that Galloway makes it official and the price will drop dramatically. You could probably just cash-out for a quick profit. For those looks beyond the odds though, if Galloway is in this then expect the Lib Dem machine to go from being interested to going into Richmond Park to find that kitchen sink they threw at winning that seat and bundling it in the back of a van to go up the M6 and throw it at Manchester Gorton.

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Written by neilmonnery

March 14th, 2017 at 11:40 am

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On whether the Lib Dems can pull of the shock win in Manchester Gorton…

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Manchester Gorton is one of Labour’s safest seats if we look solely at the numbers. A majority of over 24,000 coupled with none of the other parties clearing 10% means that is any normal by-election, it wouldn’t really interest politicos. Yet we don’t live in a normal political era anymore and anything can happen.

One of the biggest reasons it was so safe came down to having an extremely popular and long-time MP. As we saw in 2015 for the Lib Dems, popularity and incumbency couldn’t save a plethora of MPs but this wasn’t a problem for Labour here. Sir Gerald Kaufman never had a majority of under 5,000 and never was truly challenged by the Lib Dems. He never even dipped below 50% of the vote. Yet here I am with writing a blog post with the title it has so I suppose I should explain why.

First things first, politics is changing and as I’ve said before as people we are less likely to identify with our ideology at the moment but are more likely to identify with our status on the EU Referendum. Are we remainers of leavers first and foremost? I know I’d still identify as liberal above being a remainer but that sentiment is not the norm these days. This of course may well change in the relatively near future but in the immediacy, that is the case.

Second is the CLP is in complete disarray. There is a good piece in the Manchester Evening News entitled The Labour battle for Gorton, which details some of the issues going on within the local Labour party. Now this isn’t abnormal, this happens to all parties in various places at various times. Still since the rise of Jeremy Corbyn and his radical new agenda of not holding the government to account (ok I’m being slightly facetious here) but since his supporters have flooded in, many local parties are pulling in different directions. They have fierce disagreements of where the party should go.

This leads me to the third reason, what if Labour select a Brexiteer Corbynite? This would be a good place for them to roll out this strategy. It is what a lot of the newer Labour members want. Jeremy Corbyn’s public and private views on Brexit seem pretty much at odds. Publicly he supports staying in the EU but he only seems to bang on about the European Workers Directive as to why. He told Adam Hills when he appeared on The Last Leg that he wanted to stay in the EU ‘seven or seven and a half out of ten’ and that is not a ringing endorsement at all. So why not go with a Brexiteer in this seat?

Honestly if the Lib Dems were to make a staggering (and lets not beat about the bush here – it would be staggering) then it needs Labour to have this strategy. If they put up a passionate Pro-EU voice or someone who isn’t on the ultra left of the party then they should cruise home with ease. However with the way Labour are functioning at the moment, who knows what will happen?

As for how the Lib Dems manage to navigate their way through the Labour carnage should it come about, well it will not be easy. In Richmond Park they threw the proverbial kitchen sink at it, in an ultra Remain area and still only just squeaked home. This though whilst being a 61-62% Remain area (based on estimates) has one very different thing in play, this would be the first time in the post EU Referendum era where the Lib Dems are the primary opponents to a Labour hold. This in itself is going to be enough for politicos to watch what happens closely.

Can the Lib Dems make serious inroads into Labour in Remain areas? This will be the first indication of whether they can or not. The Lib Dems got over 30% in both 2005 and 2010 but saw their vote share collapse after the coalition in 2015. Very quickly we’ve seen those numbers start to reverse. The Lib Dems haven’t lost their deposit yet in a parliamentary by-election since the EU Referendum. They lost it in Manchester Gorton in 2015 but that means nothing for the upcoming by-election.

All logic will point to Labour winning with less than 50% of the vote. The Lib Dems should finish second with over 25% (my guesstimate at this point would be 28-32%) but there is plenty of time to go. Plenty of hoops to jump through. Remember Sarah Olney wasn’t winning in Richmond Park until the final 72 hours as a very well executed campaign came to a head.

If Labour pick the wrong candidate, if Jeremy Corbyn continues to have dire ratings and if the Lib Dems get the right person with a clever campaign strategy then you never know. The party are between 7 and 10/1 around. That seems about right at this juncture but I wouldn’t be blown away if they hit 3/1 before polling day.

This by-election will be far more interesting than the raw numbers suggest…

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March 3rd, 2017 at 1:18 pm

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On the Lib Dems polling at 23%…in London.

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Well what do we have here? The most pro EU area of the country has been a rather dramatic change in polling as the Lib Dems polled in the YouGov London sub-section yesterday at 23%, which I think we’d all agree is worthy of a second glance.

For a long time I have held the belief that London would be the most ripe part of the country for the #LibDemFightback to gain serious momentum. The Richmond Park result was huge as overturning a 23,015 majority in under 18 months isn’t exactly chopped liver. I will admit that this by-election had some very localised issues involved and Zac Goldsmith didn’t have the might of the Conservative party machine behind him but he was a relatively popular constituency MP and he went down.

If the party can overturn a 23,015 majority running on essentially a sole ‘Pro fighting Brexit’ ticket then why can’t they do that elsewhere in the capital? Plenty of seats are suddenly in play due to the fact the whole shape of politics is changing. The electorate aren’t stupid and they can see that the Labour party aren’t exactly sure where they stand on Brexit. They have two constituencies, the pro Brexit lobby in the midlands and north and the anti Brexit lobby in the capital and other big cities. They can’t be all things to all people so they will either damage one by going one way or both by standing in the middle with their fingers in their ears.

The party that will pick up those votes – certainly in the capital are the Lib Dems. The membership of the party is growing considerably and at a vast rate of knots in London. Plenty of seats therefore become winnable – far more than anyone could ever have predicted a year ago. As an example I’m looking at Vauxhall. A seat that has only ever had a Labour MP but their current MP is Kate Hoey, who is vehemently anti-EU but she represents an extremely pro EU constituency. A large part of Lambeth is in this Westminster constituency and that area voted 79% to Remain in the EU. When an MP is so out of step on Brexit with their constituents then all bets are off.

If you’d asked me a year ago how many seats do I think the Lib Dems would win in 2020, I’d have put the number at around 20. The stigma of tuition fees would have been diluted somewhat by time and seats such as Cambridge, Lewes and Eastleigh would swiftly return back to the yellow column. Add a few good local campaigns and that 20 mark seemed like a good guesstimate.

Now though with Brexit being the Lib Dems back into the picture as having a strong voice on a matter, add with the fact the Labour party do not have a strong leader nor a strong voice on Brexit and even though we are over three years out and plenty could change, suddenly 40-50 seats isn’t beyond the realm of possibility.

Remember since the party was formed, the Lib Dems have done best in years where the winner of the General Election was generally well known going into polling day. When this happens people aren’t necessarily voting for who they want to be Prime Minister but are thinking much more locally about who they want to represent them.

Back to London though, this could be the start of the new politics that many people think could happen as we start to identify ourselves as Remainers and Leavers and not as Labour, Tory, UKIP, Lib Dem etc… if the party can build on the momentum we have both at local and at national level then a rebirth some the lows of 2015 could happen far earlier than any of us expected.

London isn’t the golden goose but it can certainly be a springboard. 23% of a small sub-section of one poll is statistically insignificant but it is a guide to what could happen. To see the Labour polling number collapsing in the capital and when you add in that for every 2015 voter Labour have lost to UKIP nationally, they’ve lost five to the Lib Dems, then the door might be opening for a big change not only against the Tories in south and south western seats but also against Labour in the big cities.

Everything is to play for…

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March 2nd, 2017 at 2:22 pm

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On the Douglas Carswell/Nigel Farage row and the future of UKIP…

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Sometimes in life you just need a good belly chuckle. Some of us get this from recalling a funny incident from our past, maybe by watching a YouTube video or two, maybe some of us are so ticklish that a few clearly stroked feathers will induce laughter from the gut. Some of us though just look at what is going on in UKIP, have a wry smile and laugh.

The Douglas Carswell/Nigel Farage feud has been rumbling on for years. Pretty much ever since the former defected from the Conservative party to join the UKIP ranks. He became their first MP. One more would come in the form of Mark Reckless. He though would lose in 2015 and Nigel Farage would fail to win a seat in the House of Commons (yet again) leaving Carswell as their only elected representative in the chamber.

This doesn’t sit well with Farage. Not solely because he’s jealous as deep down he still thinks of himself as the top dog within the party but mainly because Carswell is relatively sensible and doesn’t think a radical agenda is what the party needs.

This morning Nigel Farage was on BBC Radio 4 and said the following about how he thinks the party should move forward regarding Carswell:

The time has now come to have a clean break. To make sure we don’t have influences like Carswell taking us away from the key arguments like immigration.

There have been some in UKIP who want to turn us into a mainstream political party with very bland messages and I would say Ukip is a radical party or it is nothing.

This question of immigration is still the number one issue in the minds of voters in this country. UKIP must not be squeamish about it. People like Douglas Carswell wrote in the Times last year we should not make immigration synonymous with EU membership. I thought, ‘Crikey, I have spent 10 years trying to do that very thing’.

Of course this comes mere days after it was widely reported (and yet to be refuted) that it was Douglas Carswell who blocked attempts to give Nigel Farage a knighthood. This action alone is enough for me to raise my bottle of coke to Carswell in appreciation. Not that Farage will be pissed off by that of course. No, not at all…

The future of the UK Independence Party is a big question considering they’ve seemingly achieved their goal. They say they have other policies but it was always a one-issue party. They wanted to pull the UK out of the EU and they look set to do just that. Where they go from here is a question that politicos have long been pondering. Farage wants it to become even more radical. He has seen what is going on in America and believes there is a future for a party who want to pursue an extreme agenda. Carswell has always thought that by sitting just to the right of the Tories they could become less toxic and more electable. Something old Nige fiercely disagrees with.

Yet if you sit back and look at UKIP’s electoral success in the House of Commons, it boils down to two people winning by-elections as incumbents having defected and only one of them was able to just hold on in the 2015 General Election (with a greatly reduced majority). They have had no history of success and even in by-elections at the height of UKIP’s public hype they failed where they didn’t have a Tory incumbent defending his seat. In Stoke they had every opportunity to win but they decided to field a terrible candidate (who happens to be their own leader) whose campaign put people right off both him and the party.

If we had Proportional Representation then Farage’s radical anti-everything agenda could see a swathe of UKIP MPs but we have a FPTP system in place and there just isn’t the amount of people in a concentrated area to ever see a truly radical right-wing party make any sort of significant impact in a General Election. To be successful going forward they need to drag themselves towards the Tories and essentially become a hard line Tory party. That could bring in many more voters. Yet all Farage wants to do is keep doubling down on being increasingly right-wing.

From where I sit it looks like Nigel Farage wants to be the main man yet again. Luckily for him the media fawn over him so he’s able to get whatever exposure he wants. He misses the limelight and knows that with Douglas Carswell in the fray, he’ll never completely be the boss. If he moves him out of the way then he can once more ascend to the throne and with Donald Trump now in the White House, who knows what influence that can bring?

This internal row is a rare bright light in the cloudy overcast world that we all currently live in. The future of UKIP is just as cloudy and overcast as the world we all inhabit, the sad truth though for me at least is their legacy is likely to live on far beyond this row and far beyond whenever UKIP either becomes a political irrelevance or disbands.

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March 1st, 2017 at 11:50 am

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On the cult of Jeremy Corbyn and the Blairite fake news explosion

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Yesterday we saw two by-elections go the way all the pundits (bar apparently David Dimbleby) expected. The Tories to win in Copeland and Labour to hold on in Stoke-on-Trent Central. This wasn’t exactly stunning news when I woke up this morning to see that they were indeed the results. The fact is that there were special circumstances in Copeland regarding nuclear power and Jeremy Corbyn that led to the seat always being a tough one to hold on to.

Corbyn was saved from humiliation by Paul Nuttall and his quite frankly shambolic campaign that took UKIP from odds on favourites at one point to realistically fighting for second place with the Tories who really didn’t even bother to campaign until late in the day when it became clear UKIP were all over the shop.

What I was surprised at however was waking up this morning and to see the word ‘Blairite’ coming up constantly on my twitter feed. Seemingly how people (and indeed some Labour MPs) are blaming the Copeland result on a backlash against the politics of Tony Blair. This is about as bewildering and off the mark as you can get. Yet they produce the stats that since 1997 the vote share in the seat has gone down consistently.

They might seem to forget that that was Labour’s high point where Blair was cruising and the party were competitive in seats where they had no business traditionally of being such. So of course the vote will have declined since because that is basic logic and maths, when a party is at their most popular they’ll get the most votes, when they are less popular they’ll get fewer votes. This is not rocket science folks, yet people are trotting out the mantra that it was Blair that cost them this seat (despite the party winning it with ease every time it came up whilst he was Labour leader.

Emily Thornberry said one of the big issues was all the fake news surrounding Jeremy Corbyn’s position on nuclear power. This woman is just something else. Every time she comes on my radar it is because she is just sprouting a clear lie or is tweeting something divisive. I’m not exactly sure what Emily’s problem with in the reporting of Jeremy’s position on nuclear power but he very clearly detailed his opposition to new nuclear power stations in his leadership election campaign. He of course said in Copeland that he’s now for new energy stations but when you say something like that during an election campaign in a seat which is very pro-nuclear after a long history of being against it, who is going to actually believe him? Seemingly not the people of Copeland.

The Tories didn’t win Copeland because they were popular, they won it because the Labour voters weren’t inching to get out and vote. The area is still very Labouir leaning but if you have a leader who doesn’t chime in with your views then people are going to think twice about voting that way.

In Stoke it was a similar situation. In what should have been a stroll in the park, even up to two weeks out they were in a real dogfight. UKIP kept tripping over themselves from Paul Nuttall claiming to live in Stoke when he didn’t to his Hillsborough comments being found out. At this point those people who were sitting on the fence started to come off the fence and go back to their natural home. Nuttall was unelectable and is now probably unelectable in any seat. I thought those Hillsborough comments were problematic but not a death knell but they were. Things like that live long in the memory.

So yesterday wasn’t a terrible night for Jeremy Corbyn. Two seats he should win with ease demographically but one did shave very local issues where he was a serious problem. I saw some Corbyn supporters hail Stoke as the party’s Waterloo moment and a victory to saviour. If winning a seat they should never have even had an issue with is grounds for great celebration, then I think that says everything about where the Labour party are at the moment. No-one knows what they stand for and they have two core sets of voters – the metropolitan and the industrial – who want vastly different things. You can’t please one without upsetting the other. This is a problem that they have seemingly no answer to as yet.

One thing is clear though. Labour did not lose Copeland because of Tony Blair. Anyone who truly thinks that either knows naff all about politics or are so blinkered they don’t recognise reason anymore.

I hope you enjoyed this blog post. Please leave any comments or contact me directly via the E-Mail Me link on the Right Hand Nav. You can stay in touch with the blog following me on Twitter or by liking the blog on Facebook. Please share this content via the Social Media links below if you think anyone else would enjoy reading.

Written by neilmonnery

February 24th, 2017 at 4:12 pm

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