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Day: April 11, 2017

On the Lib Dems continuing strong support in London – at 20% in latest poll

Last month I wrote about how the Lib Dems were at 23% in the London sub section of a YouGov Poll. Well today I’ve seen another YouGov poll breakdown and even though the numbers are ever so slightly worse for the party, it shows that there is a real consolidation of support for Tim Farron’s lot within the capital city and that it wasn’t just a rogue. You can see the chart below.

YouGov Poll – April 2017

The sense of opportunity to rebuild the base of the party in London town seems to be one that has been created by the EU Referendum. It also goes towards my hardening belief that the way we define ourselves is changing. Many people for years would have defined themselves along party lines more than ideologically. These days people are starting to define themselves by how they feel about our relationship with our European neighbours. In areas where the majority of people voted to Remain then these people will be far more inclined to come over and put their x’s in the boxes next to Liberal Democrat candidates then they would be had the European question not been first and foremost in their mind.

This of course doesn’t mean that in areas where the majority voted to Leave the European Union should be barren wastelands for the party. We have seen many huge swings in local by-elections
towards the Lib Dems in places which wouldn’t seem like natural Lib Dem territory based on the EU question. Just last week the Lib Dems took a seat off of UKIP. How can an area vote UKIP and then Lib Dem? Well that all comes down to who the motivated voters are and this is part of something I’ll get into more detail on at some other point in the near future.

My main point of this blog is that London is now in a bizarre situation where three political parties could all compete in many seats. There are still areas where the Lib Dems are not strong, this would in turn lead us to extrapolate that there are places where support is significantly beyond the 20% polling average across the Big Smoke.

I have heard of canvass data coming in, in areas which wouldn’t be considered natural Lib Dem territory which if replicated at the ballot box would be mind blowing. The next three years until 2020 will be fascinating to watch to see how Brexit impacts people. At the moment you have one set of people who think it’ll make their lives so much better and another group who believe it’ll make it so much worse. The probability is it won’t be as extreme as either set of people think but if jobs move out of the financial sector and London becomes less diverse then this will surely be a huge part of the Lib Dem platform in the capital.

Opportunity knocks for the party and from where it stood after what happened in 2015, I don’t think anyone really thought the party would be in a position to recover for a generation. Yet here we are. The party stands for something (not just to hold the Tories back) and when the party stands for something and the race to be Prime Minister seems to be less a race but more a foregone conclusion, it allows people to not only vote at the ballot box for the person they want to be PM (which they often do in close elections) but more about who best would represent their views and ideals.

Huge swathes of London wanted to stay in the EU. The Conservative party want to run out of the EU and Labour kinda sorta want to stay but if people say they want to leave then that is fine too. So we have three parties with two very strong points of view on this issue and one whose view changes with the wind (or the audience) and that means people will have a pretty clear choice.

21 months ago I thought the Lib Dems winning 20 seats across the country in 2020 would be a realistic aim. Today winning 20 seats in London seems like a stretch, a real stretch but do you know what? It isn’t just a pipe dream…

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On why Labour are currently in a crisis – edition #396…

So I’m there having a perusal of the Guardian website today and I click on a story about the 1997 Election triumph of the party. An absolute landslide that led to 13 years of Labour rule while the Tories sat in opposition and never got close to winning back power. I scroll down to the comments and the one with the moves up votes sums up everything:

No mention of the fact that Blair, Mandelson & Co. rendered Labour unelectable by moving so far away from Labour values, starting illegal foreign wars and stealing billions from ordinary people’s pensions?

So much that’s wrong now has its roots in that crowd – the refugee crisis and growth of ISIS? Blair and his mate Bush kicked that off. The growth of buy-to-let? That’s a response to the fact that we can’t trust the security of our pensions and needs some way to fund retirement.

And now Labour has a leader who actually represents Labour values and the Guardian can’t wait to destroy him. Yes Labour’s in trouble but a lot of the blame rests with the ‘nu-labor-lite’ Blairites and the Guardian.

Lets start at the beginning. On an article outlining how these men made the party very electable (indeed so electable they won three consecutive elections with huge majorities) a Labour supporters says they made the party unelectable. That is clearly not true.

As for moving so far away from Labour values, did they really? They inched towards the centre ground but they weren’t a million miles away from old Labour. Also has old Labour values won any General Election in the past two generations? Not so much.

Clearly the growth of extreme Islamic terrorism has some roots in the Iraq conflict but it could easily be argued that Al-Qaeda’s attack on the United States in 2001 was the real catalyst for those tensions to rise on both sides.

As for the Guardian wanting to destroy Jeremy Corbyn. That is paranoia talking. This newspaper after their endorsement of Nick Clegg in 2010 has run so far to the left that Corbyn himself probably thinks they’ve gone too far. They have been extremely strong supporters of his and have only cooled in recent months as his support has clearly ebbed away and most impartial observers can see he is leading the Labour party down the wrong path.

You win in the UK from the centre-left or centre-right. This isn’t exactly rocket science. Whichever of the two natural parties of government is closer to the centre will win an election. I know my lot went into coalition in 2010 and became a party of government but for most people, they are voting for one of the big two, whose leader will become PM.

Labour’s wild lurch to the left is very dangerous for many people who naturally want a party of government near the centre because it allows the Conservative party to move to the right and still be closer to the centre than Labour. If things were different and people saw the Lib Dems has a natural party of government, it would open up a huge chasm for the party to fill up. Sadly that big gap will pick up voters but not enough.

Jeremy Corbyn’s leadership is a god send to the right-wing branch of the Tory party. If Labour had a strong position on the EU and a leader who was electable to the electorate as a whole then they would be in a position to both a) win back power and b) would stop the Tories going too far to the right. If they had a young Tony Blair who wasn’t tainted by Iraq then they would likely be planning for another decade in power after a big win in 2020.

Yet some Labour members can’t abide with this and will blame everyone and everything on Labour’s woes bar the leadership. If it walks like a duck, quacks like a duck then it is probably a duck. If a leader has dire polling ratings and is 17 points behind the Tories when at the same time in the previous parliament, his predecessor was 11 points up then its probably because people don’t like him or his policies. It isn’t the fault of Tony Blair or the Guardian et al.

I hope you enjoyed this blog post. Please leave any comments or contact me directly via the E-Mail Me link on the Right Hand Nav. You can stay in touch with the blog following me on Twitter or by liking the blog on Facebook. Please share this content via the Social Media links below if you think anyone else would enjoy reading.