The Rambles of Neil Monnery

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Labour are targeting a measly 16 Lib Dem seats in 2015 but keep saying the Lib Dems are dead. Something doesn’t add up…

with 3 comments

Back in the day I went to school. 190 days a year. Lots of boring lessons. The odd interesting one as well. One lesson I did was maths. I was actually pretty good at it. Always in the top set and without sounding big headed always at the top of the top set. Maths wise I was always smart and basic number was my forte. I just nailed it.

So when I read today that Labour are targeting 106 seats for gains in 2015 but only 16 of them were Lib Dem I was a bit perplexed. Now you see I know Labour don’t need the Lib Dems to wither and die to gain power but I do know that all I read and hear is about how the Lib Dems are dead an as electable force. The two groups of people saying this are UKIP and Labour activists.

In 2015 – they say – the Lib Dems will cease to be and be wiped out. I have heard it so many times so surely if this was the case then Labour would be targeting every single Lib Dem seat because the Lib Dem vote is going to vanish into thin air? I mean there are 57 seats up for grabs – essentially free seats because no-one will vote Lib Dem any more so they’ll obviously vote for someone?

Here is the Labour target list with the Lib Dem seats bolded:

1 North Warwickshire
2 Thurrock
3 Hendon
4 Cardiff North
5 Sherwood
6 Norwich South
7 Stockton South
8 Broxtowe
9 Lancaster & Fleetwood
10 Bradford East
11 Amber Valley
12 Waveney
13 Wolverhampton SW
14 Marcambe & Lunesdale
15 Carlisle
16 Stroud
17 Weaver Vale
18 Lincoln
19 Brighton Pavillion
20 Plymouth Sutton & Devonport
21 Dewsbury
22 Warrington South
23 Brent Central
24 Bedford
25 Brighton Kemptown
26 Pudsey
27 Brentford & Isleworth
28 Hove
29 Enfield North
30 Hastings & Rye
31 Manchester Withington
32 Burnley
33 Ipswich
34 Dundee East
35 East Dunbartonshire
36 Halesowen & Rowley Regis
37 Nuneaton
38 Gloucester
39 Northampton North
40 Bury North
41 Kingswood
42 Erewash
43 Blackpool North & Cleveleys
44 City of Chester
45 Arfon
46 Croydon Central
47 Worcester
48 Keighley
49 Wirral West
50 Cannock Chase
51 Loughborough
52 Harrow East
53 Warwick & Leamington
54 Birmingham Yardley
55 South Swindon
56 Ealing Central & Acton
57 Pendle
58 Stevenage
59 Elmet & Rithwell
60 Edinburgh West
61 Watford
62 Carmarthen West & South Pembrokeshire
63 Vale of Glamorgan
64 Argyll & Bute
65 Dumfriesshire, Clydesdale & Tweeddale
66 Carmarthen East & Dinefwr
67 Norwich North
68 High Peak
69 Milton Keynes South
70 Rossendale & Darwen
71 Cleethorpes
72 North East Somerset
73 Great Yarmouth
74 Dudley South
75 Dover
76 Colne Valley
77 South Ribble
78 Peterborough
79 Stafford
80 Stourbridge
81 Harlow
82 Aberconwy
83 Ilford North
84 Preseli Pembrokeshire
85 Brigg & Goole
86 Crewe & Nantwich
87 Bristol NW
88 Battersea
89 Finchley & Golders Green
90 Calder Valley
91 Redcar
92 Crawley
93 Hornsey & Wood Green
94 Reading West
95 Rugby
96 Burton
97 Cardiff Central
98 South Basildon & East Thurrock
99 Tamworth
100 Redditch
101 Chatham & Aylesford
102 North Swindon
103 Cambridge
104 Bermondsey & Old Southwark
105 Bristol West

106 Leeds NW

Now of course Labour could be saying the other 41 seats will go from the Lib Dems to the Tories but they obviously don’t want that because if the Tories take the rest of the Lib Dem seats then the likelihood of a Labour majority is virtually wiped out. There are other parties as well all know and maybe Labour think that the Doctors against the Coalition will sweep in and take a plethora of seats. That is a possible scenario but so is a scenario where I score the winning goal for Portsmouth in an FA Cup Final.

So after the publishing of this list I would like to see Labour activists stopping with their dull and repetitive rhetoric that the Lib Dems are essentially a dead party walking towards 2015. If Labour truly believed that then they would be targeting every single Lib Dem seat.

It should also be noted that not one of the target seats is where the incumbent is a Liberal Democrat member of the Cabinet. So they are not targeting Nick Clegg, Vince Cable, Danny Alexander, Michael Moore nor Edward Davey. The highest ranked Lib Dem they are attacking is Jo Swinson in East Dunbartonshire. If the Lib Dems were hated so much then surely their best known faces will be the ones to fall as they face a backlash about being in cabinet.

So either Labour don’t actually think the Lib Dems are dead or their activists are lying not only to everyone but more importantly too themselves. I’m not saying Labour can’t take all 16 target seats but if the Lib Dems were truly dead then there are a lot more than 16 that Labour should be targeting.

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Written by neilmonnery

January 8th, 2013 at 9:27 pm

Posted in Politics

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3 Responses to 'Labour are targeting a measly 16 Lib Dem seats in 2015 but keep saying the Lib Dems are dead. Something doesn’t add up…'

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  1. “Now of course Labour could be saying the other 41 seats will go from the Lib Dems to the Tories but they obviously don’t want that because if the Tories take the rest of the Lib Dem seats then the likelihood of a Labour majority is virtually wiped out.”

    Sorry, but this really is such silly stuff.

    Obviously Labour isn’t going to be targeting seats held by the Lib Dems where Labour came a poor third. You must know that the Tories were second-placed in most Lib Dem seats.

    Equally obviously, your other claim – that if the Tories took the rest of the Lib Dem seats then that would virtually wipe out the likelihood of a Labour majority – is nonsense. Because Labour is also targeting 90 other seats which it hopes to gain from the Tories and others. If Labour won those, that would give it a majority of around 80, regardless of how the rest of the seats were shared between the Tories and the Lib Dems.

    Chris

    8 Jan 13 at 11:14 pm

  2. Yeah because if the Tories took all 41 seats from the Lib Dems then Labour would obviously have taken all the target seats from the Tories *rolls eyes* – so you are implying that everyone in the country will vote Labour where they can beat the Lib Dems and vote Tory where the Tories can beat the Lib Dems…yeah…

    Why aren’t Labour targeting the seats where they are were third in 2010? They say the Lib Dems are dead and the Tories are evil. If the choices are between Labour, Evil and Dead surely everyone will vote Labour…?

    neilmonnery

    9 Jan 13 at 12:23 am

  3. I read this slightly differently. There are numerous seats where there is more chance of a Tory taking them then Labour doing so. If Labour push hard in those seats they are more likely to take votes from the Lib Dems then Tories, if they do so they will help the Tories win. Therefore getting to be either the biggest party in a coalition or holding a majority becomes less likely. Either way, if it gives the Lib Dem a better chance against the Tory then all the better.

    Steve Way

    9 Jan 13 at 12:58 am

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